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WEEKLY STATISTICS FOR OUR NO-LOAD MUTUAL FUND AND ETF INVESTMENT PLANS As of Wednesday, January 7, 2010 By Ulli G. Niemann |
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IN
THIS ISSUE: 1.
General Domestic Equity Mutual Funds/ETFs — BUY 2. Domestic
Equity Funds by Family — BUY 3.
Exchange Traded Funds Master List 4.
Domestic Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) — BUY 5.
International Equity Mutual Funds/ETFs — BUY 6.
Country ETFs — SELECTIVE BUY 7.
The SimpleHedge Strategy — BUY 8. Sector
Fund Investing (ETFs) — SELECTIVE BUY 9.
Sector Fund Investing (Mutual Funds)
— SELECTIVE BUY 10.
Bond & Dividend paying ETFs — SELECTIVE BUY 11.
Bear Market Funds — SELL 12.
401(k) Funds (domestic) — BUY 13.
New Subscriber Info Weekly Market
Comment: The
New Year started out with a bang with the S&P 500 gaining the first four
trading days. All eyes are focused on Friday’s unemployment report, which could
bring this streak to an end if the numbers turn out worse than expected. Are you interested
in reading my possibly politically incorrect ruminations about the market? I
have set up a blog, aptly named “The Wall Street Bully,” which will be
updated during the week. It gives you the opportunity to post comments and
continue the dialog. Take a look at it: http://thewallstreetbully.blogspot.com/ If
you have a newsreader, you can subscribe to it and new updates will be
delivered to you automatically. Alternatively, you can set this link up in
your ‘Favorites’ folder and check at your convenience. This is a free
service, so please tell some of your friends. GLOSSARY OF TERMS
USED: 1. 4Wk, 8Wk, 12Wk
and YTD refer to how these funds have performed or “appreciated” during these
various time periods. 2. %M/A (39-week Simple
Moving Average) shows how far above or below its long-term trend line a
fund/ETF is currently positioned. 3. “From 6/3/09”
shows a fund’s performance since the date a new domestic Buy Cycle started.
“From 5/11/09” shows a fund’s performance since the date we bought our
International positions. 4. DD% (DrawDown percentage) measures the
drop from a fund’s high to its current price during the past year. A fund
that shows 0.00% has just made a
new high. That’s good news because it confirms that it is moving up given
current economic conditions. It is therefore in tune with market
momentum. Conversely, a fund with a large negative
DD% number is a lagging performer and should not be purchased at this time. 5.
MaxDD% (Maximum DrawDown percentage) is not
shown in these tables, but you will find me mention it quite frequently. If you were to go back 365 days and measure
DD% for a given fund every trading day, and then select the worst (largest)
DrawDown number, you would have the information that
I call MaxDD% (Maximum DrawDown Percentage). This allows me to look back at anytime and
see which funds have held up best and never hit our 7% sell stop. Those are
the ones with a low MaxDD% (low volatility) number and
may be among my primary selections for the next Buy cycle. 6.
M-Index (Momentum Index) shows
the average non-weighted momentum ranking of a fund or ETF. The average is
calculated from the existing 4wk, 8wk, 12wk and YTD momentum numbers. The higher
the number, the more upside momentum a fund has. However, volatility is
increased at the same time. If you’re conservative, drop down a few numbers
from the top of the ranking food chain. The
use of the M-Index was announced in my blog post at: http://thewallstreetbully.blogspot.com/2007/08/introducing-m-index-major-upgrade-to-no.html 1. DOMESTIC EQUITY
MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs:
BUY—
since 6/3/2009
As
announced via a blog post, on 6/2/2009, the TTI triggered a buy signal with
an effective date of 6/3/2009. We have increased various hedge and outright
long positions for this cycle. We will use the 7% trailing stop loss of our
positions as an exit point and not wait for the crossing of the trend line to
the downside. As
of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken
above its long term trend line (red) by +6.51%. Please
note the addition of the blue short-term trend line, which will be used in
section 7 for my hedge strategy.
The
link below shows the top 100 domestic funds (out of 674) and the sorting
order is by M-Index ranking. Prices in all linked tables are updated through
1/7/2010, unless otherwise noted. Price data not yet available at publication
is indicated with 00.00% or -100.00%. Please note, that I
only track no-load, no transaction fee or ‘load waived’ funds, which are
available to me through my custodian Charles Schwab & Co. Since all
brokers and custodians have different policies you need to check with yours
first, before placing any trades, as to no load availability and any charges
or fees involved. I have identified
those funds, which are available to me as “load waived” funds or “advisor
only” funds, with an asterisk before their names. While this may not apply to
all brokerage firms, it should allow you to quickly locate those which are
truly no load. During
this Buy signal, you can use the tables in the links below to make your
selections:
http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/DomFundsTop100_010710.pdf TIP: Don’t forget to
check the 401k funds in section 12 as well, since many of them are available
for all types of investment accounts at different brokerage houses. 2. DOMESTIC FUNDS
BY FAMILY: American Century, Fidelity, Vanguard, ProFunds, Rydex, T. Rowe
Price — BUY http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/DomFFs010710.pdf 3. EXCHANGE TRADED
FUNDS MASTER LIST As
per request, I have added this ETF Master list so that you can quickly
compare various ETFs without having to reference other tables. The ETFs
listed in the table (476) consist of the following orientations: Domestic,
International, Country, Sector and Specialty. Momentum figures for all ETFs
are not adjusted for dividends. Please
note that I have moved all bear market ETFs to section 11, where they are
listed alongside the bear market mutual funds. http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/ETFMaster010710.pdf 4. DOMESTIC
EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS (ETFs): BUY ETFs
are an excellent alternative to No Load Mutual Funds. They are a valid choice
to high mutual fund management fees, restrictive trading and redemption
charges, which have been a problem for years. If
you’re not sure how to use ETFs please read my FREE article about their pros
and cons, which you may view anytime at: http://www.successful-investment.com/articles24.htm All
the same Buy and Sell rules apply for domestic ETFs as they do for domestic equity mutual funds in
section 1. http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/DomETFs010710.pdf 5. INTERNATIONAL
EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 5/11/2009 Last
Cycle from 9/5/2007 – 11/13/2007
On
May 8, 2009, the International Index broke clearly above its trend line
generating a Buy signal effective Monday, May 11, 2009. We will use our 7%
trailing stop loss discipline as our exit point, should the markets head
lower again. Currently, the international TTI is positioned +10.97% above its
trend line. The
listings in the link below represent some of my choices of the international
funds I track to be used during this Buy signal. Please note that I have
added Vanguard, Fidelity, T. Rowe Price, Rydex/ProFunds and American Century
Funds. They are sorted by M-Index ranking: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/InternFunds010710.pdf Be
advised that many international funds may not be available to you since they
carry a load. However, while I am able to purchase these for my managed
account clients as ‘load waived’ funds, this doesn’t help you much, if you do
your own investing. This is why I have included some appropriate ETFs in the
above list. 6. COUNTRY ETFs: SELECTIVE BUY While
I believe that the This
addition to my newsletter will allow us to also invest selectively in
countries with better performing stock markets. With the proliferation of
ETFs over the past years, we are now able to invest in a variety of countries
using low cost index ETFs. The
chart shows the China Index as an example:
The
link contains a list of various countries/regions, which I am tracking weekly.
Please note that data in this table does not include adjustments due to
distributions. http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/CountryETFs010710.pdf As
you witnessed during the last couple of years, country funds can be volatile
and the use of a trailing stop loss (I use 10%) is imperative to protect your
portfolio from severe downside moves. 7. THE SimpleHedge STRATEGY: BUY This
section is a continuation of my recently published e-book on hedging for the
mutual fund/ETF investor. If you have not read it, please download your copy
at: http://www.successful-investment.com/SimpleHedge-v1.pdf As
announced, I have added a hedge position for clients using about 20% of
portfolio value. My existing hedge, which was set up on 12/31/2008 is now
showing the following performance updated through 3/3/2009:
As
you can see, the unrealized gain was +3.91%. On 3/3/2009, I had to rebalance
(as described in my e-book) since, due to market conditions, the hedge had
become lopsided in favor of the short position by 61% to 39%. After
rebalancing, the performance from 3/3/2009 to 4/6/2009 now looks as follows:
For
that period, the hedge shows a total unrealized gain of +1.84%. I will
continue to update this table every week. After
rebalancing, the performance from 4/6/2009 to 9/17/2009 now looks as follows:
The
hedge became lopsided again and was rebalanced with the close of the market
on 9/17/09. While there are several
ways to do this, in this case, I simply increased the short positions
bringing the long/short ratio back to 50/50:
8. SECTOR FUND
INVESTING (ETFs): SELECTIVE BUY To
diversify our portfolios, we always need to look for different opportunities
to invest our money. The table of sector fund listings (ETFs) in the
following link covers a broad spectrum of possibilities. The sorting order is
by M-Index: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/SectorETFs010710.pdf I
personally invest no more than 10% of portfolio value in any one sector and
use a 10% trailing stop loss to minimize the risk. 9. SECTOR FUND
INVESTING (Mutual Funds): SELECTIVE BUY If
you prefer using Fidelity’s wide variety of excellent sector funds, you will
like this new addition. Here as well, sectors can be volatile, and I advise
the use of a sell stop just as we do with ETFs. The
sorting order is by M-Index: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/SectorMFs010710.pdf 10. BOND &
DIVIDEND ETFs: SELECTIVE BUY If
you prefer using ETFs for the generation of income, here’s a list of bond and
dividend paying ETFs. It’s important to first look at how theses instruments
have held up in terms of momentum figures. Then you should visit your
favorite financial web site to examine yield and other details. http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/Bond_DivETFs010710.pdf 11. BEAR MARKET
FUNDS:
SELL
The
above indicator represents our Short Fund Composite (SFC) to be used as a
trend indicator for Bear Market Funds. The
SFC has broken below its long-term trend line by -19.53%, which means a Buy
will not occur until the trend line is broken to the upside again. Below
are the most commonly available bear market funds/ETFs and their momentum
figures: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/BearFunds010710.pdf Please
note that some of the above funds try to outperform the index they are tied
to by the percentage stated. While this can enhance your returns it can
certainly accelerate your losses as well. No matter which way you choose, be
sure to work with a trailing sell stop and be aware that volatility will be
your constant companion. 12. 401(k) FUNDS
(domestic): BUY The
list (featured in the link below) displays commonly held 401(k) domestic equity mutual funds showing
their latest momentum figures to go along with the Buy and Sell signals of
the TTI in section 1. The same stop loss rules apply here as well. Since
fund choices are limited in any 401k plan, be sure to roll your assets into
an IRA if you leave your job. Let me know if you need help with that. In
the meantime, however, you can benefit greatly by at least not buying the
worst fund at the wrong time. If you follow our plan, you will never again
buy one of those highly volatile sector funds, when you really should be out
of the market altogether. The
sorting order is now also by M-Index. http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/401k010710.pdf 13. New Subscriber
Information To get you a head
start on more successful investing, please click on: http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter/How_to_use.pdf and download our “How to use” information sheet and
last year’s “Buy Signal”
information: http://www.successful-investment.com/weekly/BuySignal042803.pdf Also, my daily blog
posts at http://thewallstreetbully.blogspot.com/
should help you to become more familiar with my approach as well as our
Investment Policy Statement at: http://www.successful-investment.com/InvPolicyStatement.pdf If
you still need some guidance, feel free to contact me. Special Notes: 1.
I have taken great care in selecting only mutual funds with no loads and no
redemption fees. However, policies vary from one brokerage house to another.
Before placing any trade, make sure to verify with your broker or custodian
as to any charges and fees involved. 2.
Be aware that, because of the mutual fund scandals, some fund families have
added early redemption fees. While some are reasonable (30 days), others are
ridiculous by trying to tie up the individual investor for 180 days, or
you’re being charged a 2% fee to opt out early. Be sure to check first before
placing any order. 3.
Should there be a sudden change in investment positions, I will post a notice
at my blog. If
you are interested in having your portfolio professionally managed using our
methodology, feel free to contact me directly or visit our website http://www.successful-investment.com/money_management.htm
for more information. My
e-mail is ulli@successful-investment.com
and my phone is 714.841.5804 Until
next week. Ulli… ========================= Ulli G. Niemann Registered
Investment Advisor 714.841.5804 =========================
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information presented herein is for informational purposes only and does not
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advisor and receives no commissions for client trades. |
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