|
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
WEEKLY STATISTICS FOR OUR NO-LOAD MUTUAL FUND AND ETF INVESTMENT PLANS As of Thursday, June 19, 2008 By Ulli G. Niemann |
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
IN THIS ISSUE: 1. General Domestic
Equity Mutual Funds — HOLD 2. Domestic Equity
Funds by Family — HOLD 3. Exchange Traded
Funds Master List 4. Domestic Exchange
Traded Funds (ETFs) — HOLD 5. International
Equity Mutual Funds/ETFs — SELL 6. Country ETFs
— SELECTIVE
BUY 7. Tax-Free
Investing — SELL 8. Sector Fund Investing
(ETFs) — SELECTIVE
BUY 9. Sector Fund
Investing (Mutual Funds) — SELECTIVE
BUY 10. Bond &
Dividend paying ETFs — SELECTIVE BUY 11. On the Horizon:
Bear Market Funds — SELL 12. 401(k) Funds
(domestic) — HOLD 13. New Subscriber
Info Weekly Market Comment: So far,
the bears were in charge this week by pulling all major indexes lower. We
still remain in the neutral zone domestically, but this could change fairly
quickly. Are you interested in reading my
possibly politically incorrect ruminations about the market? I have
set up a blog, aptly named “The Wall Street Bully,” which will be updated
during the week. It gives you the opportunity to post comments and continue
the dialog. Take a look at it: http://thewallstreetbully.blogspot.com/ If you
have a newsreader, you can subscribe to it and new updates will be delivered
to you automatically. Alternatively, you can set this link up in your
‘Favorites’ folder and check at your convenience. This is a free service, so
please tell some of your friends. GLOSSARY OF TERMS USED: 1. 4Wk, 8Wk, 12Wk and YTD refer to
how these funds have performed or “appreciated” during these various time
periods. 2. %M/A (39-week Simple Moving
Average) shows how far above or below its long-term trend line a fund/ETF is currently positioned. 3. “Since 9/6/06” shows a fund’s
performance since that date. This date will be re-set once a new domestic Buy
Cycle starts. 4. DD% (DrawDown percentage) measures the drop from a
fund’s high to its current price during this Buy cycle (since is moving up given current given economic
conditions—which were favorable at the time. It is therefore in tune with market momentum. Conversely, a fund with a large negative DD% number is a
lagging performer and should not be purchased at this time. 5. MaxDD%
(Maximum DrawDown percentage) is not
shown in these tables, but you will find me mention it quite frequently. If you were to go back to the beginning of the previous
Buy cycle ( trading day, and then select the worst (largest) DrawDown
number, you would have the information that I call MaxDD% (Maximum DrawDown Percentage). This allows me to look back at anytime and see which funds
have held up best and never hit our 7% sell stop. Those are the ones with a low MaxDD% (or low volatility)
number and may be among my primary selections for the next Buy cycle. 6.
M-Index (Momentum Index) shows
the average non-weighted momentum ranking of a fund or ETF. The average is
calculated from the existing 4wk, 8wk, 12wk and YTD momentum numbers. The
higher the number, the more upside momentum a fund has. However, volatility
is increased at the same time. If you’re conservative, drop down a couple
numbers from the top of the ranking food chain. The use of
the M-Index was announced in my blog post at: http://thewallstreetbully.blogspot.com/2007/08/introducing-m-index-major-upgrade-to-no.html 1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS: HOLD —
Buy effective 5/15/08
Our Trend
Tracking Index (TTI) moved lower this week (green line in above chart) and
has broken below its long term trend line (red) by -0.30%, which means that
we are close to a Sell signal. My sell rules are as follows: I will liquidate any of my
holdings if they drop by more than 7% from their highs since I bought them,
or if the TTI breaks below the trend line and remains there for two
consecutive trading days — whichever occurs first. Right now it looks as
though that the second condition could be met fairly quickly. I will post
details on the blog, if a Sell signal is indeed generated.
The link
below shows the top 100 domestic funds (out of 674) and the sorting order is
by M-Index ranking. Prices in all linked tables are updated through 6/19/2008,
unless otherwise noted. Price data not yet available at publication is
indicated with 00.00% or -100.00%. Please note, that I only track
no-load, no transaction fee or ‘load waived’ funds, which are available to me
through my custodian Charles Schwab & Co. Since all brokers and
custodians have different policies you need to check with yours first, before
placing any trades, as to no load availability and any charges or fees
involved. I have identified those
funds, which are available to me as “load waived” funds or “advisor only”
funds, with an asterisk before their names. While this may not apply to all
brokerage firms, it should allow you to quickly locate those which are truly
no load. Once the
next Buy signal is generated, you can use the tables in the links below to
make your selections:
http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/DomFundsTop100_061908.pdf Important
note: Due to a data base error, some funds like JORNX and WLGYX are currently
not listed in the Top 100. I am working on fixing this problem and will let
you know as soon as it has been resolved. TIP: Don’t forget to check the 401k
funds in section 12 as well, since many of them are available for all types
of investment accounts at different brokerage houses. 2. DOMESTIC FUNDS BY FAMILY:
American Century, Fidelity, Vanguard, ProFunds,
Rydex, T. Rowe Price — HOLD http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/DomFFs061908.pdf 3. EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS MASTER
LIST As per
request, I have added this ETF Master list so that you can quickly compare
various ETFs without having to reference other tables. The ETFs listed in the
table (476) consist of the following orientations: Domestic, International,
Country, Sector and Specialty. Momentum figures for all ETFs are not adjusted
for dividends. Please
note that I have moved all bear market ETFs to section 11, where they are
listed alongside the bear market mutual funds. http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/ETFMaster061908.pdf 4. DOMESTIC EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS
(ETFs): HOLD ETFs are
an excellent alternative to No Load Mutual Funds. They are a valid choice to
high mutual fund management fees, restrictive trading and redemption charges,
which have been a problem for years. If you’re
not sure how to use ETFs please read my FREE article about their pros and
cons, which you may view anytime at: http://www.successful-investment.com/articles24.htm All the
same Buy and Sell rules apply for domestic ETFs as they do for domestic equity mutual funds in section
1. http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/DomETFs061908.pdf 5. INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MUTUAL
FUNDS/ETFs: SELL — since 11/13/2007 Last
Cycle from 9/5/2007 – 11/13/2007
As of
today, the International Index has now broken below its trend line by -6.37%.
We remain on the sidelines. The
listings in the link below represent some of my choices of the international
funds I track to be used when the next Buy signal occurs. Please note that I
have added Vanguard, Fidelity, T. Rowe Price, Rydex/ProFunds
and American Century Funds. They are sorted by M-Index ranking: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/InternFunds061908.pdf Be
advised that many international funds may not be available to you since they
carry a load. However, while I am able to purchase these for my managed
account clients as ‘load waived’ funds, this doesn’t help you much, if you do
your own investing. This is why I have included some appropriate ETFs in the
above list. 6. COUNTRY ETFs: SELECTIVE BUY While I
believe that the This
addition to my newsletter will allow us to also invest selectively in
countries with better performing stock markets. With the proliferation of
ETFs over the past years, we are now able to invest in a variety of countries
using low cost index ETFs. The chart
shows the Pacific Asia Index as an example:
The link
contains a list of various countries/regions, which I am tracking weekly.
Please note that data in this table does not include adjustments due to
distributions. http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/CountryETFs061908.pdf As you
witnessed during the last couple of years, country funds can be volatile and
the use of a trailing stop loss (I use 10%) is imperative to protect your
portfolio from severe downside moves. 7. TAX-FREE INVESTING: SELL This
section shows some of the Closed End Exchange Traded Bond Funds (CEETBFs) as
discussed in my free e-Book “How to
Earn 5% - 6.5% Tax-Free Income,” which can be downloaded from my site. This new
addition to the StatSheet is a managed account service I offer. Choosing the
right CEETBF out of over 500 takes a lot of work to customize a selection of
funds specifically suited to your needs. To
identify the general trend of these funds, I have created the TFI-Index, as
illustrated in the chart below. If the Index (green line) is above its
long-term trend line (red), we are in an environment of lower interest rates.
If it breaks below it, we are seeing interest rates rising. Note: In light of current overall credit
problems, which have affected the municipal market as well, I currently can’t
recommend any investments in this arena.
The table
below is a small sampling of what is available. Be advised that the columns
“Discount,” “Current Dividend Yield,” and “YTD” are updated weekly so that
you can see and track the impact changes in interest rates are having. The
data is as of 6/18/2008:
Please
note that many of these funds have been around for a long time and therefore
10-yr annualized returns are available for most of them. All of them are exempt from Federal taxation and, depending
on what state you live in, maybe exempt from State taxation as well. Here’s
the glossary of terms used: 1. 1 Yr
Return*: The return over the last 12 months consisting of appreciation and
reinvested dividends. 2. Since
Inception*: The annualized return since the fund started operating. 3. 10 Yr
Annualized Return*: The annualized return over the past 10 years. 4.
Discount from NAV: The discount or premium from Net Asset Value (NAV) this
fund can be currently purchased for. 5.
Average Credit Rating: A key number which shows the quality of the fund with
AAA being the highest. The percentage shows how much of the funds holdings,
as a percentage, are in AAA rated bonds. 6.
Morningstar (MS): The current Morningstar rating. NR means that it is not yet
rated. 7.
Current Div. Yield: That’s the income being generated and it is paid out on a
monthly basis, if you wish. This represents spendable
income. 8. YTD:
Shows the Year-To-Date performance (without dividends) to demonstrate the
effect of changes in interest rates. Some funds are showing capital gains,
other capital losses. This is a very short-term view. These types of
investments should only be made with at least a 5-year time horizon. There are
many other factors, which come into play, when evaluating CEETBFs. This
section is only designed as an introduction. If you do your own investing in
this area, be sure to read my new article titled “The 10 Rules of Successful Tax-Free Income Investing,” which is
posted at: http://www.successful-investment.com/articles31.htm If you
have a need to generate reliable monthly income, please call me, or go the
following link and submit your request: http://www.successful-investment.com/TFI *As of 8. SECTOR FUND INVESTING (ETFs): SELECTIVE BUY To
diversify our portfolios, we always need to look for different opportunities
to invest our money. The table of sector fund listings (ETFs) in the
following link covers a broad spectrum of possibilities. The sorting order is
by M-Index: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/SectorETFs061908.pdf I
personally invest no more than 10% of portfolio value in any one sector and
use a 10% trailing stop loss to minimize the risk. 9. SECTOR FUND INVESTING (Mutual
Funds): SELECTIVE BUY If you
prefer using Fidelity’s wide variety of excellent sector funds, you will like
this new addition. Here as well, sectors can be volatile, and I advise the
use of a sell stop just as we do with ETFs. The
sorting order is by M-Index: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/SectorMFs061908.pdf 10. BOND & DIVIDEND ETFs: SELECTIVE BUY If you
prefer using ETFs for the generation of income, here’s a list of bond and dividend
paying ETFs. It’s important to first look at how theses instruments have held
up in terms of momentum figures. Then you should visit your favorite
financial web site to examine yield and other details. http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/Bond_DivETFs061908.pdf 11. ON THE HORIZON: Bear Market
Funds: SELL
The above
indicator represents our Short Fund Composite (SFC) to be used as a trend indicator
for Bear Market Funds. The SFC
has now broken back below its long-term trend line by -2.60%. With our TTI
(section 1) still hovering around the neutral range, this constitutes a
current sell of bear market funds and ETFs. Below are
the most commonly available bear market funds/ETFs and their momentum
figures: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/BearFunds061908.pdf Please
note that some of the above funds try to outperform the index they are tied
to by the percentage stated. While this can enhance your returns it can
certainly accelerate your losses as well. Personally, I prefer the
conservative route and, therefore, I will not use the leverage available. 12. 401(k) Funds (domestic): HOLD The list
(featured in the link below) displays commonly held 401(k) domestic equity mutual funds showing
their latest momentum figures to go along with the Buy and Sell signals of the
TTI in section 1. The same stop loss rules apply here as well. Since
fund choices are limited in any 401k plan, be sure to roll your assets into
an IRA if you leave your job. Let me know if you need help with that. In the
meantime, however, you can benefit greatly by at least not buying the worst
fund at the wrong time. If you follow our plan, you will never again buy one
of those highly volatile sector funds, when you really should be out of the
market altogether. The
sorting order is now also by M-Index. http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/401k061908.pdf 13. New Subscriber Information To get you a head start on more
successful investing, please click on: http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter/How_to_use.pdf and download our “How to use” information sheet and
last year’s “Buy Signal”
information: http://www.successful-investment.com/weekly/BuySignal042803.pdf Also, my daily blog posts at http://thewallstreetbully.blogspot.com/
should help you to become more familiar with my approach as well as our
Investment Policy Statement at: http://www.successful-investment.com/InvPolicyStatement.pdf If you still
need some guidance, feel free to contact me. Special Notes: 1. I have
taken great care in selecting only mutual funds with no loads and no
redemption fees. However, policies vary from one brokerage house to another. Before
placing any trade, make sure to verify with your broker or custodian as to
any charges and fees involved. 2. Be
aware that, because of the mutual fund scandals, some fund families have
added early redemption fees. While some are reasonable (30 days), others are
ridiculous by trying to tie up the individual investor for 180 days, or
you’re being charged a 2% fee to opt out early. Be sure to check first before
placing any order. 3. Should
there be a sudden change in investment positions, I will post a notice at my
blog. If you
are interested in having your portfolio professionally managed using our
methodology, feel free to contact me directly or visit our website http://www.successful-investment.com/money_management.htm
for more information. My e-mail
is ulli@successful-investment.com
and my phone is 714.841.5804 Until
next week. Ulli… ========================= Ulli G. Niemann Registered Investment Advisor 714.841.5804 =========================
DISCLAIMER (c) Copyright
Successful-Investment.com, 2003. All rights reserved. No portion of the above
message may be republished, retransmitted or forwarded without our express
written consent. Violation of this copyright may result in service
cancellation. Use and/or reliance on this service are strictly at the
subscriber's own risk. Subscriber must maintain compliance with our Terms and
Conditions. We will not be liable for the acts or omissions of any third
party with regards to delay or non-delivery of the 'Successful-Investment'
notification. We shall not be liable for incidental, indirect, special or
consequential damages or for lost profits, savings or revenues of any kind,
whether or not we have been advised of the possibility for such damages. Ulli G. Niemann is a registered investment
advisor pursuant to the California Department of Corporations. The
information presented herein is for informational purposes only and does not
constitute an offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such
an offer can only be made in those states we have established a
"notice-filing" status or where an exemption from notification is
currently available under the de minimis exemption rule. The investment advisor is an independent
advisor and receives no compensation from any corporations, brokerage houses,
organizations or special interest groups by making recommendations to
purchase any of the investment products used. The advisor is a fee-only
advisor and receives no commissions for client trades. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
