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WEEKLY STATISTICS FOR OUR NO-LOAD MUTUAL FUND INVESTMENT PLANS As of By |
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IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Domestic Equity
Mutual Funds 2. Exchange Traded
Funds (ETFs) 3. International
Equity Mutual Funds 4. Inverse Bond
Funds 5. On the Horizon:
Bear Market Funds 6. 401(k) Funds 7. New Subscriber
Info Weekly Market Comment: Same
activity, but a different week. The markets continued to slip and slide as
good news in the economy as well with company earnings were equalized by bad
news. Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) moved lower and currently hovers 1.15%
above its long-term trend line. Good thing we established a higher Buy point
to avoid a possible whip-saw, since market direction is still anything but
clear. We could
see lower levels, if earnings reports either surprise on the downside or
simply don’t blow past expectations. With this much uncertainty we will
remain in 100% cash positions for the time being. 1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS: SELL — since
Last Buy Cycle from
*Our
average portfolio (over $50k) has returned +24.81%, after management fees,
for this Buy Cycle (from Our TTI has
to move up 2.09% (last week 1.87%) from current levels in order for us to get
a Buy signal to move back into domestic equity funds. As the market attempts
to move higher, even though on slow pace, you will notice a lot more positive
(blue) numbers appearing in all momentum columns; the reverse is true as the markets
deteriorate. The first
table below shows the top 25 funds (out of 726) and is sorted by 4Wk
performance (as of
The
following list shows the top 25 funds out of the 726 we track, but the
sorting order is by 12wk performance:
The table
below has been newly added, and the data has been filtered as follows: Out of
our 726 funds, I have only listed the top 25 with positive numbers in all
momentum columns and a DrawDown feature of less than 5% (DD%). The sorting
order is by 4 weeks. Due to weakening market conditions only 21 funds
qualified to be listed here. The result
is that only those funds with consistent performance in all areas are
displayed, which to me represent the top choices for fund selections once the
TTI gives us a Buy signal. TIP: Once we get a Buy signal don’t
forget to check the 401k funds in section 6 as well, since many of them are
available for all types of investment accounts. This list is being enlarged
constantly as subscribers submit fund selections.
2. EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS (ETFs) ETFs are an
excellent alternative to No Load Mutual Funds. I’m pleased to bring you this
new addition as an alternative to high mutual fund management fees and
redemption charges, which have plagued us all for years. If you’re
not sure how to use ETFs please read my FREE article about their pros and
cons, which you may view anytime at: http://www.successful-investment.com/articles24.htm All the
same Buy and Sell rules apply for ETFs as they do for domestic equity mutual funds.
Please
note the addition of a new fund, DVY, which is the Dow Jones Select Dividend
Index Fund. It was introduced in November 2003 and therefore does not have a
CurrBuyCycle performance number. Included in this index are the 50 highest
dividend-yielding companies in the U.S. stock market, which meet the index’s
listing criteria. The index is rebalanced once a year in December to ensure
that the highest-weighted stocks in the index will also be the biggest
dividend payers. 3. INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MUTUAL
FUNDS: SELL —
since 5/11/2004 — Gain: +44.33%
Last Buy Cycle
from 6/303 to
Following
the slight down turn in the domestic fund arena, our International Index
reversed as well and is sitting now 1.35% below its trend line. The new Buy
point has been set higher, just like in our TTI above, and this index has to
move up another 4.38% before we will re-enter this market. Below are
some of the top performing international funds (out of 122) sorted by 4wk
performance as of
4. INVERSE BOND FUNDS: SELL — since Last Buy Cycle from
The above
chart shows the Rydex Juno Fund and its long-term trend line (red). For those
of you not familiar with this fund here is the definition: “Rydex Juno Fund seeks total
return that inversely correlates to the price movements of the 30-year
Treasury bond.” In other
words, if interest rates go up, this fund will rise in value. Due to weak
economic data (lower rates) this fund has broken below its trend line and
effective July 6, 2004 we liquidated our small position at a loss of -2.49%
on 1/3 of our portfolio. We will
stand aside for now, but we may consider this fund again once it becomes
clear that inflationary trends are to continue thereby pushing interest rates
to higher levels. While
this trade did not work out for us, it nevertheless is a good example of
being disciplined in our approach and keeping any losses to a minimum. 5. ON THE HORIZON: Bear Market
Funds: SELL
The above
indicator represents our Short Fund Composite (SFC) to be used as a trend
indicator for Bear Market Funds. If the SFC (green) breaks above its
long-term trend line (red) that would signal a Buy for us to move a portion
of our assets into this area. When the
time comes we will carefully evaluate the fund choices, invest no more than
1/3 of our portfolios and follow a strict 7% stop loss rule. Currently the
SFC is only 0.72% below its trend line. However, I would like to see a clear
and consistent break above the trend line before I would consider entering this
market. Below are
the most commonly available bear market funds and their momentum figures as
of
Please
note that some of the above funds try to outperform the index they are tied to
by the percentage stated. While this can enhance your returns it can
certainly accelerate your losses as well. Personally, I prefer the
conservative route and therefore I will not use the leverage available. 6. 401(k) Funds: SELL — since Below is
a list of commonly held 401(k) mutual funds showing their latest momentum
figures. If you would like us to track your 401(k) using our method, feel
free to send us a list of your fund choices. Please limit the fund types to
only 3 “domestic equity funds,” which could be of the Growth, Growth &
Income and Aggressive Growth variety. We only
track funds which are available through Charles Schwab & Co. as no-load
and with no transaction fee. To add
those to our list we need the name of the fund AND its 5 digit ticker symbol.
Please send the info to: 401k@Successful-Investment.com Be aware,
however, that funds in your 401k plan generally are inferior to the choices of
funds that are available through most discount brokers. That’s not a put
down, but has been my experience over the years. However, you can benefit
greatly by at least not buying the worst fund at the wrong time. If you
follow our plan, you will never again buy one of those highly volatile sector
funds, when you really should be out of the market altogether. Since this
list has grown quite a bit, I have sorted it now by Ticker Symbol in
alphabetical order. This should make it easier for you to locate those funds you
are tracking (Data is as of
7. New Subscriber Information To get you a head start on more
successful investing, please click on: http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter/How_to_use.pdf and download our “How to use” information sheet and
last year’s “Buy Signal”
information: http://www.successful-investment.com/weekly/BuySignal042803.pdf If you
still need some guidance, feel free to contact me. Special Notes: 1. I have
taken great care in selecting only mutual funds with no loads and no
redemption fees. However, policies vary from one brokerage house to another.
Before placing any trade, make sure to verify with your broker or custodian
as to any charges and fees involved. 2. Be
aware that, because of the mutual fund scandal, some fund families have added
early redemption fees. While some are reasonable (30 days), others are
ridiculous by trying to tie up the individual investor for 180 days, or
you’re being charged a 2% fee to opt out early. Be sure to check first before
placing any order. 3. Should
there be a sudden change in investment positions I will send out a special
e-mail bulletin immediately. 4. I will
limit the tracking of 401k funds to only the first 100 submitted to me. If you
are interested in having your portfolio professionally managed using our
methodology, feel free to contact me directly or visit our website http://www.successful-investment.com/money_management.htm
for more information. My e-mail
is ulli@successful-investment.com
and my phone is 714.841.5804 Until
next week. Ulli… ========================= Ulli G. Niemann Registered Investment Advisor 714.841.5804 =========================
DISCLAIMER (c) Copyright
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for lost profits, savings or revenues of any kind, whether or not we have
been advised of the possibility for such damages. Ulli G. Niemann is a registered investment
advisor pursuant to the California Department of Corporations. The
information presented herein is for informational purposes only and does not
constitute an offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such
an offer can only be made in those states we have established a
"notice-filing" status or where an exemption from notification is
currently available under the de minimis exemption rule. The investment advisor is an independent
advisor and receives no compensation from any corporations, brokerage houses,
organizations or special interest groups by making recommendations to
purchase any of the investment products used. The advisor is a fee-only
advisor and receives no commissions for client trades. |
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