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WEEKLY STATISTICS FOR OUR NO-LOAD MUTUAL FUND AND ETF INVESTMENT PLANS As of Thursday, July 23, 2009 By Ulli G. Niemann |
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IN THIS ISSUE: 1. General Domestic
Equity Mutual Funds/ETFs — BUY 2. Domestic Equity Funds
by Family — BUY 3. Exchange Traded
Funds Master List 4. Domestic Exchange
Traded Funds (ETFs) — BUY 5. International
Equity Mutual Funds/ETFs — BUY 6. Country ETFs
— SELECTIVE
BUY 7. The SimpleHedge Strategy — BUY 8. Sector Fund
Investing (ETFs) — SELECTIVE
BUY 9. Sector Fund
Investing (Mutual Funds) — SELECTIVE
BUY 10. Bond &
Dividend paying ETFs — SELECTIVE BUY 11. Bear Market
Funds — SELL 12. 401(k) Funds
(domestic) — BUY 13. New Subscriber
Info Weekly Market Comment:
Are you interested in reading my
possibly politically incorrect ruminations about the market? I have
set up a blog, aptly named “The Wall Street Bully,” which will be updated
during the week. It gives you the opportunity to post comments and continue
the dialog. Take a look at it: http://thewallstreetbully.blogspot.com/ If you
have a newsreader, you can subscribe to it and new updates will be delivered
to you automatically. Alternatively, you can set this link up in your
‘Favorites’ folder and check at your convenience. This is a free service, so
please tell some of your friends. GLOSSARY OF TERMS USED: 1. 4Wk, 8Wk, 12Wk and YTD refer to
how these funds have performed or “appreciated” during these various time
periods. 2. %M/A (39-week Simple Moving
Average) shows how far above or below its long-term trend line a fund/ETF is currently positioned. 3. “From 6/3/09” shows a fund’s
performance since the date a new domestic Buy Cycle started. “From 5/11/09”
shows a fund’s performance since the date we bought our International
positions. 4. DD% (DrawDown percentage) measures the drop from a
fund’s high to its current price during the past year. A fund that shows 0.00% has just made a new high. That’s good news because it
confirms that it is moving up given current economic conditions. It is therefore in tune with market momentum. Conversely, a fund with a large negative DD% number is a
lagging performer and should not be purchased at this time. 5. MaxDD%
(Maximum DrawDown percentage) is not
shown in these tables, but you will find me mention it quite frequently. If you were to go back 365 days and measure DD% for a
given fund every trading day, and then select the worst (largest) DrawDown number, you would have the information
that I call MaxDD% (Maximum DrawDown Percentage). This allows me to look back at anytime and see which funds
have held up best and never hit our 7% sell stop. Those are the ones with a low MaxDD% (low volatility)
number and may be among my primary selections for the next Buy cycle. 6.
M-Index (Momentum Index) shows
the average non-weighted momentum ranking of a fund or ETF. The average is
calculated from the existing 4wk, 8wk, 12wk and YTD momentum numbers. The
higher the number, the more upside momentum a fund has. However, volatility
is increased at the same time. If you’re conservative, drop down a few
numbers from the top of the ranking food chain. The use
of the M-Index was announced in my blog post at: http://thewallstreetbully.blogspot.com/2007/08/introducing-m-index-major-upgrade-to-no.html 1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL
FUNDS/ETFs: BUY—
since 6/3/2009
As announced
via a blog post, on 6/2/2009, the TTI triggered a buy signal with an
effective date of 6/3/2009. We have increased various hedge and outright long
positions for this cycle. Due to the close proximity of the TTI to its trend
line, we will use the 7% trailing stop loss of our positions as an exit point
and not the crossing of the trend line to the downside. Once the TTI has
crossed further to the upside, I will adjust the exit strategy. As of
today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken
above its long term trend line (red) by +4.70%. Please
note the addition of the blue short-term trend line, which will be used in
section 7 for my hedge strategy.
The link
below shows the top 100 domestic funds (out of 674) and the sorting order is
by M-Index ranking. Prices in all linked tables are updated through 7/23/2009,
unless otherwise noted. Price data not yet available at publication is
indicated with 00.00% or -100.00%. Please note, that I only track
no-load, no transaction fee or ‘load waived’ funds, which are available to me
through my custodian Charles Schwab & Co. Since all brokers and
custodians have different policies you need to check with yours first, before
placing any trades, as to no load availability and any charges or fees
involved. I have identified those funds,
which are available to me as “load waived” funds or “advisor only” funds,
with an asterisk before their names. While this may not apply to all
brokerage firms, it should allow you to quickly locate those which are truly
no load. Once the
next Buy signal is generated, you can use the tables in the links below to
make your selections:
http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/DomFundsTop100_072309.pdf TIP: Don’t forget to check the 401k
funds in section 12 as well, since many of them are available for all types
of investment accounts at different brokerage houses. 2. DOMESTIC FUNDS BY FAMILY: American
Century, Fidelity, Vanguard, ProFunds, Rydex, T.
Rowe Price — BUY http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/DomFFs072309.pdf 3. EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS MASTER
LIST As per
request, I have added this ETF Master list so that you can quickly compare
various ETFs without having to reference other tables. The ETFs listed in the
table (476) consist of the following orientations: Domestic, International,
Country, Sector and Specialty. Momentum figures for all ETFs are not adjusted
for dividends. Please
note that I have moved all bear market ETFs to section 11, where they are
listed alongside the bear market mutual funds. http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/ETFMaster072309.pdf 4. DOMESTIC EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS
(ETFs): BUY ETFs are
an excellent alternative to No Load Mutual Funds. They are a valid choice to
high mutual fund management fees, restrictive trading and redemption charges,
which have been a problem for years. If you’re
not sure how to use ETFs please read my FREE article about their pros and
cons, which you may view anytime at: http://www.successful-investment.com/articles24.htm All the
same Buy and Sell rules apply for domestic ETFs as they do for domestic equity mutual funds in
section 1. http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/DomETFs072309.pdf 5. INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MUTUAL
FUNDS/ETFs: BUY
— since 5/11/2009 Last
Cycle from 9/5/2007 – 11/13/2007
On May 8,
2009, the International Index broke clearly above its trend line generating a
Buy signal effective Monday, May 11, 2009. Since we can never be sure if this
push above the trend line has legs or not, we will use our 7% trailing stop
loss discipline as our exit point, should the markets head lower again.
Currently, the international TTI is positioned +14.48% above its trend line. The
listings in the link below represent some of my choices of the international
funds I track to be used when the next Buy signal occurs. Please note that I
have added Vanguard, Fidelity, T. Rowe Price, Rydex/ProFunds
and American Century Funds. They are sorted by M-Index ranking: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/InternFunds072309.pdf Be
advised that many international funds may not be available to you since they
carry a load. However, while I am able to purchase these for my managed
account clients as ‘load waived’ funds, this doesn’t help you much, if you do
your own investing. This is why I have included some appropriate ETFs in the
above list. 6. COUNTRY ETFs: SELECTIVE BUY While I
believe that the This
addition to my newsletter will allow us to also invest selectively in
countries with better performing stock markets. With the proliferation of
ETFs over the past years, we are now able to invest in a variety of countries
using low cost index ETFs. The chart
shows the China Index as an example:
The link contains
a list of various countries/regions, which I am tracking weekly. Please note
that data in this table does not include adjustments due to distributions. http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/CountryETFs072309.pdf As you
witnessed during the last couple of years, country funds can be volatile and
the use of a trailing stop loss (I use 10%) is imperative to protect your
portfolio from severe downside moves. 7. THE SimpleHedge STRATEGY: BUY This
section is a continuation of my recently published e-book on hedging for the
mutual fund/ETF investor. If you have not read it, please download your copy
at: http://www.successful-investment.com/SimpleHedge-v1.pdf One of
the first rules for putting on a hedge is that the domestic TTI (green)
crosses the short-term trend line (blue) to the upside. This happened on
March 19, 2009. Please see chart in section 1. As
announced, I have added a hedge position for clients using about 20% of
portfolio value. My existing hedge, which was set up on 12/31/2008 is now
showing the following performance updated through 3/3/2009:
As you
can see, the unrealized gain was +3.91%. On 3/3/2009, I had to rebalance (as
described in my e-book) since, due to market conditions,
the hedge had become lopsided in favor of the short position by 61% to 39%. After
rebalancing, the performance from 3/3/2009 to 4/6/2009 now looks as follows:
For that
period, the hedge shows a total unrealized gain of +1.84%. I will continue to
update this table every week. After
rebalancing, the performance from 4/6/2009 to 7/23/2009 now looks as follows:
8. SECTOR FUND INVESTING (ETFs): SELECTIVE BUY To
diversify our portfolios, we always need to look for different opportunities
to invest our money. The table of sector fund listings (ETFs) in the
following link covers a broad spectrum of possibilities. The sorting order is
by M-Index: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/SectorETFs072309.pdf I
personally invest no more than 10% of portfolio value in any one sector and
use a 10% trailing stop loss to minimize the risk. 9. SECTOR FUND INVESTING (Mutual
Funds): SELECTIVE BUY If you
prefer using Fidelity’s wide variety of excellent sector funds, you will like
this new addition. Here as well, sectors can be volatile, and I advise the
use of a sell stop just as we do with ETFs. The
sorting order is by M-Index: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/SectorMFs072309.pdf 10. BOND & DIVIDEND ETFs: SELECTIVE BUY If you
prefer using ETFs for the generation of income, here’s a list of bond and
dividend paying ETFs. It’s important to first look at how theses instruments
have held up in terms of momentum figures. Then you should visit your
favorite financial web site to examine yield and other details. http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/Bond_DivETFs072309.pdf 11. BEAR MARKET FUNDS: SELL
The above
indicator represents our Short Fund Composite (SFC) to be used as a trend
indicator for Bear Market Funds. The SFC
has broken below its long-term trend line by -29.70%, which means a Buy will
not occur until the trend line is broken to the upside again. Below are
the most commonly available bear market funds/ETFs and their momentum
figures: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/BearFunds072309.pdf Please
note that some of the above funds try to outperform the index they are tied
to by the percentage stated. While this can enhance your returns it can
certainly accelerate your losses as well. No matter which way you choose, be
sure to work with a trailing sell stop and be aware that volatility will be
your constant companion. 12. 401(k) FUNDS (domestic): BUY The list
(featured in the link below) displays commonly held 401(k) domestic equity mutual funds showing
their latest momentum figures to go along with the Buy and Sell signals of
the TTI in section 1. The same stop loss rules apply here as well. Since
fund choices are limited in any 401k plan, be sure to roll your assets into an
IRA if you leave your job. Let me know if you need help with that. In the
meantime, however, you can benefit greatly by at least not buying the worst
fund at the wrong time. If you follow our plan, you will never again buy one
of those highly volatile sector funds, when you really should be out of the
market altogether. The
sorting order is now also by M-Index. http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/401k072309.pdf 13. New Subscriber Information To get you a head start on more
successful investing, please click on: http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter/How_to_use.pdf and download our “How to use” information sheet and
last year’s “Buy Signal”
information: http://www.successful-investment.com/weekly/BuySignal042803.pdf Also, my daily blog posts at http://thewallstreetbully.blogspot.com/
should help you to become more familiar with my approach as well as our
Investment Policy Statement at: http://www.successful-investment.com/InvPolicyStatement.pdf If you
still need some guidance, feel free to contact me. Special Notes: 1. I have
taken great care in selecting only mutual funds with no loads and no redemption
fees. However, policies vary from one brokerage house to another. Before
placing any trade, make sure to verify with your broker or custodian as to
any charges and fees involved. 2. Be
aware that, because of the mutual fund scandals, some fund families have
added early redemption fees. While some are reasonable (30 days), others are
ridiculous by trying to tie up the individual investor for 180 days, or
you’re being charged a 2% fee to opt out early. Be sure to check first before
placing any order. 3. Should
there be a sudden change in investment positions, I will post a notice at my
blog. If you
are interested in having your portfolio professionally managed using our
methodology, feel free to contact me directly or visit our website http://www.successful-investment.com/money_management.htm
for more information. My e-mail
is ulli@successful-investment.com
and my phone is 714.841.5804 Until
next week. Ulli… ========================= Ulli G. Niemann Registered Investment Advisor 714.841.5804 =========================
DISCLAIMER (c) Copyright
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we have been advised of the possibility for such damages. Ulli G. Niemann is a registered investment
advisor pursuant to the California Department of Corporations. The
information presented herein is for informational purposes only and does not
constitute an offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such
an offer can only be made in those states we have established a
"notice-filing" status or where an exemption from notification is
currently available under the de minimis exemption rule. The investment advisor is an independent
advisor and receives no compensation from any corporations, brokerage houses,
organizations or special interest groups by making recommendations to
purchase any of the investment products used. The advisor is a fee-only
advisor and receives no commissions for client trades. |
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